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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and fun season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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