A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
