Everyday Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Government Figures

The average number of per-day killings per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to recent government data. However, public safety analysts have advised that murder numbers might not point to better countrywide stability.

Significant Reduction in Daily Numbers

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in the month of November versus roughly 87 when the President began the presidency in the previous September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen over these months is extremely notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, adding that in November the lowest number of murders were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Violent organized crime rivalries, combined with the administration's highly militarised operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over 4x greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper drop in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The central pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigation work.
• Increased coordination between various agencies.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, public safety experts urged caution that relying on homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we can’t just look at the homicide data and think: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

As reported by the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same timeframe the previous year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for estimating the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to accurately recognize and classify bodies. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly problematic because it could hide days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Using the daily mean makes surges of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

An area where the administration can cite the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per official data. More than 20,000 weapons were taken and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to build a picture of improvement. Politically it’s highly potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas concluded.